Fantasy Higher or Lower: RB Edition
1) Number of RBs with 1,200 Rushing Yards: 3.5
Higher:
Only 3 rushers churned out at least 1,200 yards via the ground last year as opposed to 6 in 2016. I see that figure rising in 2018 as I can see several RBs that could push for that total. First, the shoe-ins in Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. All three should easily pass 1,200 rushing yards due to their abilities and incredible volume they will surely see. And in order to be correct in this higher or lower game, I only need one more rusher to eclipse the mark. In my opinion, Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette all have a good shot at getting there.
2) Jordan Howard Rush Yards: 1,150
Higher:
After rushing for 1,313 and 1,122 yards in each of his first two seasons, Howard seems like a lock to reach 1,000 yards. But, I see Howard reaching higher heights. Most see a plodding runner on a lackluster offense, but I am here to tell you that he is wildly underrated both in fantasy and real football. While he lacks deft hands in the receiving game, he is lights out as a runner. Plus, with a projected better offense due to better weapons surrounding young QB, Mitch Trubisky. However, this offense should still run through Howard. He should push 1200-1275 yards on the ground.
3) Jerrick McKinnon Rush Attempts: 235
Lower:
McKinnon finally finds himself in a situation where he is the workhorse back. But wait, what about a few years ago when Adrian Peterson left an opening at the RB position in Minnesota, or last year when Dalvin Cook when down with an injury? Well, both those times, his starting job was usurped by another back; Matt Asiata and Latavius Murray. And to make matters worse, neither of these backs are so-called studs, no offense to either of them. So, is it smart for fantasy owners to put so much trust in a back that has yet to establish himself as a go-to runner? I don't believe so. I'm cautious about McKinnon and his smaller frame in a workhorse back role. He'll stay under 210 carries in 2018. Injuries could be brutal for the runner.
4) Melvin Gordon Rush TD's: 9
Higher:
Everyone seems to hate on Gordon but he has produced in each of the last two years. His numbers from 2016 would have been even better had he not gotten injured and missed the final three games of the season. But, he finally played all 16 games in 2017 and finished as a top-5 fantasy RB. Over the past two seasons, he has averaged 9 TDs on the ground but I believe he can soar past that figure in 2018. The Chargers offense has the potential to be as good as any other offense in the entire NFL, and playing alongside the intellectual Phillip Rivers only helps Gordon. Also, don't forget one of Rivers' favorite red zone targets in Hunter Henry is lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Gordon could score between 10-13 rushing TDs in 2018.
5) David Johnson Receptions: 75
Higher: Not really much to say here other than the Cardinals are going to be pretty bad, which means two things to me...they will be in more negative game scripts which yields more passes and David Johnson is a stud and will be looked to to carry the load for the Cards both on the ground and through the air. Don't forget that DJ posted 80 catches in 2016 and already had 6 receptions in less than a full game in 2017. Johnson should carry a heavy workload this season and should be able to post 80+ receptions.
6) Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards: 750
Lower: Kamara was historic last year as a rookie. However, the only problem here is that I do not think it's reasonable to think that he can do it again. Everything seemed to go Kamara's way last year and while I still think he is very talented, I see a dip in production and efficiency in 2018. Only two players amassed over 750 receiving yards among RBs in '17, Kamara and Todd Gurley. 826 receiving yards is an incredible total for a running back and I think it's a little far-fetched to think Kamara will do it again. I see a number closer to 710 yards through the air for the second year back.
7) Saquon Barkley Total TD's: 10
Lower: Barkley is surrounded by more hype than pretty much any other back in recent memory, and for good reason. His measurables are simply off the charts and his blend of speed and strength is really just unrivaled. With that said, he enters a situation with exceptionally talented skill players around him in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram who will surely take targets and scoring opportunities from Barkley, in addition to a pretty shaky and newly overhauled offensive line. The Giants should have a better overall offense in 2018, but the combination of the many mouths to feed, a subpar O-line, and the under the radar pick-up of Jonathon Stewart who could eat into Barkely's goal-line chances makes double-digit scores for Barkley difficult to envision. I see Saquon scoring 7-9 total TDs.
8) LeSean McCoy Rush Yards: 1,075
Lower: McCoy has been a fantasy star for several years now but 2018 looks to be one of his last in fantasy relevance. He's getting up there in age and has a long resume of touches and carries that will surely take a toll on a back that is now in his 30's. He should get the touches in '18 as this seemingly putrid Bills offense will have to flow through McCoy, but defenses will certainly stack the box and force AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman, or Josh Allen to throw the ball, making McCoy's life difficult. In a better situation last season, he "only" rushed for 1,138 yards so 1,075 in 2018 will be tougher. He should still eclipse 1,000 yards but he shouldn't get too much further.