'18 Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football Rankings- RB's
Welcome to fantasy football 2018. Here are my early rankings for the top 10 running backs in standard format leagues. Enjoy!
1) Todd Gurley
2017: 279 Carries, 1,305 Rushing Yards, 13 Rushing TDs, 788 Receiving Yards, 6 Receiving TDs = 319.30 FP (RB1) (15 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Gurley is this season's David Johnson. A high-volume, touchdown monster who plays on all three downs. There are only four of these backs lefts in the NFL in my opinion: Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson. All four can make a case for #1 overall, yet I have Gurley taking the top spot due to his better health history than Bell and Johnson, and his better receiving totals compared to that of Zeke. Plus, McVay's offense looks like it is just beginning to heat up. Gurley should replicate his near 2,000 yards with around 1,800 and around 14 total touchdowns.
2) Le'Veon Bell
2017: 321 Carries, 1,291 Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs, 655 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving TDs = 256.6 FP (RB2) (15 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Bell and Gurley are 1A and 1B for me right now as both are given plenty of touches in explosive offenses. However, it seems to me like Gurley is a bit more of the guy in LA than Bell is in Pittsburgh due to Antonio Brown's presence. Nevertheless, getting Bell at #2 ain't too shabby either. If he plays 14-16 games, he will be a top-5 RB. His rushing numbers actually have room to grow as he was not as efficient (4.0 YPC in '17) as in years past on the ground (4.9 YPC in '15, '16). Look for Bell to push for 2,000 total yards and 10 total touchdowns.
3) Ezekiel Elliott
2017: 242 Carries, 983 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs, 269 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving TDs = 177.2 FP (RB9) (10 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Zeke comes back to a Cowboy offense starving for skilled players. With Dez Bryant's release, the Cowboys are starting Allen Hurns, Terrence Williams, and Cole Beasley. This means that Elliott will need to pick up the slack. In the 10 games he played in in 2017, Zeke ranked 1st among all backs in rushes per game with 24.2. That was almost three whole carries more than third place finisher Le'Veon Bell (21. 4 Att/G). Elliott will get the rock plenty in '18 and should eat to the tune of 1,700 total yards and 12 TDs.
4) David Johnson
2017: 11 Carries, 23 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs, 67 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving TDs = 7.0 FP (RB103) (1 Game Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: The final back in this first tier is David Johnson of the Arizona Cardinals. While the Cards might not be as potent of an offense compared to the three other rushers ahead of him, he makes up for it with his incredible talent, versatility, and workload. He went down with a wrist injury in Week 1 that sidelined him for the entirety of the season, but looks to be on track for the start of the 2018 season. In that less than a game that he did play though, his crazy usage was on full display: 11 carries and 6 receptions on 9 targets in two and a half quarters. He was on pace for more than 20 touches in the first game of the season and there should be no reason for the Cardinals not to continue feeding him. His potential is through the roof and should push 1,600 total yards and 13 TDs.
5) Alvin Kamara
2017: 120 Carries, 728 Rushing Yards, 8 Rushing TDs, 826 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs = 233.4 FP (RB4) (16 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games and honestly I do not think that that changes much in regard to Kamara's ADP. He should still be selected in the back half of the first round and still see more volume, just like he was going to with Ingram in the lineup. Kamara is not a back that you give the ball to pound it up the middle on first and second downs. Although he certainly could, he is best used in unique spreads and positions on the field to set up mismatches. Fortunately, head coach Sean Payton is adept at such things. Kamara will see his 10-15 carries and 5 receptions per game and turn them into close to 100 scrimmage yards every game. Look for the second year back to rack up over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs.
6) Saquon Barkley
2017: N/A (ROOKIE)
Analysis: Rookie backs aren't what they used to be. In the past two years alone, the NFL has seen rookies like Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara shred opposing defenses and turn into fantasy fixtures. Barkely looks to follow in these players' footsteps and possibly even set a new standard. His skills are ridiculous, as evidenced by analysts calling him the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson. The Giants took the Penn State phenom second overall which should mean that they will feed him heavily. If Saquon approaches 300 total touches, he will certainly be worthy of such a lofty draft day price. At RB6, Barkley is a bit higher in my rankings as opposed to others, but I believe Barkley, with his massive workload, will put up crazy numbers. Alongside superstar Odell Beckham Jr., Barkley can approach 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs.
7) Leonard Fournette
2017: 268 Carries, 1,040 Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs, 302 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving TDs = 194.2 FP (RB8) (13 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: The rookie proved to be well worth his draft price for both his real team and fantasy teams. The Jags made the AFC conference finals while fantasy owners were given a distinct edge with a workhorse back who churned out over 1,000 rush yards and 10 total TDs. Fournette should only be better in '18 as his team's makeup is basically the same as a time-managing offense who runs the ball down teams' throats. The only thing keeping Fournette back is his injuries. However, if he could avoid the injury bug, Fournette could reach 1,450 yards and 11 TDs.
8) Melvin Gordon
2017: 284 Carries, 1,105 Rushing Yards, 8 Rushing TDs, 476 Receiving Yards, 4 Receiving TDs = 230.1 FP (RB5) (16 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Gordon does not get as much love as his fellow workhorse backs, which is very unfortunate. I get it...Gordon is not the most efficient back in the league, but he consistently puts up numbers. Volume is king in fantasy, and let me tell you, Melvin Gordon gets volume. He was third in carries last season and had 5 more carries than Todd Gurley, fantasy's #1 RB. And while he isn't known for his pass-catching abilities, he finished tied for eighth in the NFL with 58 receptions. Playing on an up and coming team with extreme offensive upside only cements Gordon's place in the top two rounds in drafts. Gordon will reach 1,500 yards and 9 TDs.
9) Kareem Hunt
2017: 272 Carries, 1,327 Rushing Yards, 8 Rushing TDs, 455 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving TDs = 242.2 FP (RB3) (16 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: I have Hunt ranked pretty low compared to other rankings around the fantasy world for several reasons. First, I'm worried about his consistency issues. He completely vanished for weeks of his rookie year, and I am not so sure that won't happen again. A player is not worth a first round draft price with consistency issues...period. Also, Andy Reid is known for keeping players on the bench more than they should. He even limited snaps for Jamaal Charles in his prime, so why would Hunt be any different. And the last reason is that Hunt's back-up, Spencer Ware, isn't too shabby. He was lost with an injury before last season even started and will be healthy long before this season starts. There are too many question marks for me to pick Hunt within the top 15 picks, but he cannot slide too far down as he did flash some talent in his rookie year and did lead the league in rushing. I would temper expectations: 1,425 total yards and 8 TDs sounds more realistic.
10) Dalvin Cook
2017: 74 Carries, 354 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing TDs, 90 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving TDs = 54.4 FP (RB59) (4 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: Cook started out red hot in 2017, but his season was cut short due to a devastating ACL injury. Nevertheless, it looks like he will return by Week 1 and could be a steal in fantasy drafts. Back-up Jerrick McKinnon left for San Fransisco, leaving Latavius Murray, who won't be stealing any third down work from Cook. While Murray should spell Cook after an injury concerning the ACL, Cook should garner 15 carries a game with a lot of work in the passing game. Also with the arrival of Kirk Cousins, Cook could be Cousins' form of Chris Thompson, who caught 39 passes for 510 yards in 10 games. Cook, if everything clicks, could slip into top-5 RB territory (as he was before his injury) but I see him with about 1,400 total yards and 8 TDs.
Just Missed the Cut: LeSean McCoy (RB7), Devonta Freeman (RB13), Jordan Howard (RB10)