Higher or Lower: TE Edition
Continuing with my Higher or Lower game, here is my TE edition, which I did last year, and can be seen here. I did a respectable job in last year's edition, going 5/8 but still missed on ones like Jordan Reed's TDs and Coby Fleener's great play. However, I was correct on Greg Olsen's continued dominance and Travis Kelce's entrance into the 1,000 yard club. Neverthless here I am one year later trying to correctly predict the stats of this year's best TEs. Hope you enjoy.
Travis Kelce Touchdowns: 6
Higher
This may sound like a very conservative total for Kelce but most probably wouldn't suspect that the Chiefs' All-Pro tight end actually only has 14 touchdowns in three pro seasons and has a high of 5, done twice. This, to me, is crazy since Kelce is a big, athletic target who is very capable of catching the ball and it's not like the Chiefs had a bunch of great red-zone catchers in the past three years. Nevertheless, we enter into the 2017 campaign and the Chiefs did not get any better weapon-wise. In fact, they got worse--losing Jeremy Maclin, their most talented receiver even though he struggled last season. That leaves them with Kelce, second-year freak Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, and Albert Wilson...not exactly a star-studded cast. I see Kelce breaking through this season in the red-zone for 8 total TDs.
Kyle Rudolph Receiving Yards: 800
Lower
Somehow, someway, Kyle Rudolph reached 840 yards, good for fourth most among tight ends. He did this after never previously totaling more than 495 yards in any one season in his career. Now, I may be wrong and Rudolph may become an elite receiving TE for the remainder of his career but I cannot see that happening as he is now in his seventh season. But going for Rudolph is his QB, Sam Bradford, who is a specialist with dink and dunk type throws. And I, having picked Rudolph up off the waiver wire last season, saw him rack up yards by running seven yards downfield and turning around to catch the ball flatfooted and proceed to get tackled with no yards after the catch...over and over. While that could still happen again this season, I would rather go for a tight end that offered a little more in the passing game. Rudolph is a fine tight end but I don't envision him with any more 800 yard seasons. He'll be good for around 650-700 yards.
Jimmy Graham Receptions: 70
Higher
Tight ends are always a tough group to project mostly because of their positional volatility but also because of the aggressive hits that tight ends commonly have to take. And when talking about injuries and tight ends, Jimmy Graham is bound to come up. And while that may be unfair since Graham has only missed an impressive 7 games in his 7 year career, his knee injury is still unsettling. However, he played in all 16 games last year and has said in camp that he feels a lot better than he did last year. That is a scary proposition since Graham totaled 65 catches for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns and apparently wasn't even 100%. But while he most likely will never post the stats he did with Drew Brees in New Orleans, Graham could reach 70 catches, a mark he has yet to reach since arriving in Seattle. Let's just hope for good health.
Delanie Walker Receiving Yards: 750
Lower
Delanie Walker has posted over 750 yards for three straight years by a pretty wide margin...but I think that ends in 2017. Yes, Walker is getting up there in age (33) but I don't think that'll be the sole, or even main reason, for his decline. Instead, it'll be due to the amount of adept pass-catchers there are in that Tennessee offense. Eric Decker, Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews, DeMarco Murray, and even Derrick Henry will garner looks and will surely take up a lot of Marcus Mariota's throws. If Mariota puts up around 3,800 passing yards (which would be a career-high by some 350+ yards), Decker, Davis, and Matthews will rack up a combined 2,400 yards, leaving 1,400 yards. Murray and Henry should command around 400-500 yards through the air, leaving a little less than 1,000 yards for Walker and the rest of the scraps in the Titans' offense. And while that may sound like a lot of action for Walker, I looked at last year's Titans offense and researched that the rest of the players outside the top 5 in receiving yards for the Titans accumulated 660 yards. Walker surely won't have just 340 yards, but this just shows you that there's a lot of mouths to feed in Tennessee. Walker will get somewhere between 700-750 yards.
Rob Gronkowski Touchdowns: 10
Higher
This is honestly just a prediction of Gronk's health because simply put--if Gronk plays more than 12 games, he'll get 10 TDs, and if he gets hurt again, he won't. And while it is hard to depend on his health, I believe he stays on the field this year. I don't really have any reasoning or analysis backing this up because, well, this is football and people get hurt. But, I think Gronk stays healthy and regains his seat atop the TE rankings. Also, word out of camp is that Gronk is feeling really good and I mean how can you not root for a guy like him. Chalk him up for 12 TDs in 15 games.
Hunter Henry Touchdowns: 8
Lower
This one is a tough one for me because I really like Henry as a late-round TE to draft. However, all of his talent and impressive TD efficiency last season (8 TDs on only 36 receptions) cannot change the fact that there are so many mouths to feed in Los Angeles (the Chargers one, not the Rams). In addition to fellow tight end Antonion Gates, Henry also has to battle for targets with RB Melvin Gordon and wideouts Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Dontrelle Inman. Henry should still get his share of looks and is sure to get at least 5 TDs, but 8 from a season ago may be a little too high for the second year tight end. I see him scoring 5-7 times in 2017.