Higher or Lower: RB Edition
Continuing with my Higher or Lower game, here is my RB edition, which I also did last year which can be seen here. I was more successful in last year's RB edition than QB edition, going 6/9 but missing on ones like the Lamar Miller touch prediction and the Devonta Freeman rushing yards projection. However, I was correct on Frank Gore's rushing yard total and David Johnson's touchdown total. Neverthless here I am one year later trying to correctly predict the stats of this year's best RBs. Hope you enjoy.
Le'Veon Bell Total Yards: 2,000
Lower:
This is no slight to Bell in anyway, as I believe he is the best running back in the NFL. But, Bell just cannot seem to stay on the field, whether it's due to a suspension or injuries. Last season, Bell averaged a cool 157 yards per game, which would've meant that he would've totaled 2,512 yards if he were to have played in all 16 games--an absolutely ridiculous total and a would-be NFL record. Truth is, Bell would be an easy call for a 2,000 yard season if he were to be an automatic play for 16 games. And in his one complete 16 game season in his young career...2,215 total yards. Bell will accumulate 1700+ yards in 14 games in 2017.
Jordan Howard Rushing Yards: 1,250
Lower:
With all of the hype that Jordan Howard's been getting, I just don't really understand it. I get it, he ran for over 1,300 yards last year on a bad Bears team as a rookie which beyond fantastic but does that just mean he's definitely going to repeat in his sophomore campaign? Ask any Todd Gurley owner last season how that went. Yes, the Bears offensive line can be very, very good, but it can only help so much if the rest of the team stinks. Firstly, their QB situation is one of the league's worst, maybe even rivaling the Browns'. With Mike Glennon (59.4% career completion percentage) and rookie Mitch Trubisky, Howard may be looking at a great deal of stacked fronts. Plus, the Bears do not project to be anywhere near a good team in 2017 so negative game script could ruin much of Howard's volume which is a huge blow to any fantasy running back, especially since he isn't much of a receiving back. And lastly, Howard was picked in the fifth round as the 150th overall selection in the 2016 draft, so I'm a little weary of picking someone that was looked passed so much. There have been great underdog stories in NFL history, but even more one-year wonders. I see Howard rushing for a little over 1,100 yards.
Isaiah Crowell Rushing Touchdowns: 8
Higher:
Crowell has never had more than 8 touchdowns in one season in his career, yet also has never totaled more than 198 rushes. In 2017, the Cleveland Browns will be a totally different Browns team than before...or at least we can only hope. But seriously, analysts are projecting the Browns to be a more competitive team which will only benefit Crowell and his usage. If Crowell can get to 225-250 rushes this year, he has the ability to rack up some serious yards and will be able to hit pay dirt more than his 7 he had last year in an offense that struggled mightily. Crowell could get to 9-11 touchdowns this season and be a huge bargain RB2 for owners.
Christian McCaffrey Touches: 225
Lower:
All reports out of Panthers camp are of the utmost praise for their first round draft pick, Christian McCaffrey, the shifty all-purpose back out of Stanford. However, it is an odd pairing as the Panthers are a run-first team and opt not to engage in short passes with Cam Newton, a major strength of McCaffrey's. While that may change due to the team's longing to preserve Newton's shelf life by throwing more instead of running with their star QB, I do not see McCaffrey getting enough dink and dunk passes to justify his 8th overall selection in the NFL nor his late-3rd round ADP in fantasy drafts. I see him doing quite well efficiently-wised but he will not get the volume that a high-end RB2 needs to be a quality fantasy back. He'll see around 160 carries, 55 receptions for 1,100 total yards and 5 TDs.
Ty Montgomery Receptions: 50
Higher:
The former wideout now finds himself in the backfield of the Green Bay Packers, not a bad spot for an offensive player. While Montgomery failed to eclipse even 80 carries in 15 games, he did accumulate 44 receptions, or good for almost 3 per game, and he did not even record more than 1 carry or reception in the first four games. That means he really averaged 4 receptions per game which would project out to 64 catches, good for 3rd most among RB's in 2016. As long as Montgomery can hold onto his starting RB role in Green Bay, he will smash 50 receptions.
Doug Martin End-of-Season RB Ranking: 20
Higher:
Yes, Doug Martin is missing a quarter of the season, but that doesn't mean he can't make a splash in fantasyland. Look at Le'Veon Bell last year, who finished 4th among all running backs despite also missing four games. Now, obviously Martin isn't of the same talent as Bell but he still has finished as a top five fantasy RB twice in his career so he's not some scrub. Last year's RB20 was actually the disappointing Todd Gurley who posted a line of 885/6/327/0. That ultimately averages out to 74/.5/27/0 per game, which Martin has bested in 3 of his 5 NFL seasons. I have been taking Martin in every draft that I can because he is someone that I can get as an RB31 in the 8th round who can potentially become a league-winning pick. I foresee Martin putting up big numbers once he starts playing in a high-octane offense who wants to run the ball. He can finish as high as the RB15.