Higher or Lower: QB Edition
I played this little game last year and it can be viewed here to see how my predictions panned out. I was mildly successful in the QB edition going 4/7 but missing pretty big on ones like the Blake Bortles TD prediction and the Matt Ryan turnover projection. However, I was correct on Drew Brees' passing yardage total and Andrew Luck's rushing total. Neverthless here I am one year later trying to correctly predict this year's batch of QBs. Hope you enjoy.
Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns: 34
Lower:
Believe it or not but Brady actually has exceeded 34 touchdowns only 4 times in his illustrious 16 year career. Now, he has picked it up in this department as of late - averaging 33 passing touchdowns over the past seven years - but I foresee the Patriots attempting to curb Brady's exposure to more hits by opting to the ground game a little more often. Brady has made it apparent that he wants to play a couple more years in the league...already at age 40 and even last year his pace for pass attempts (576) would have been the lowest in five years for the five-time champ. He'll still be wildly efficient but just don't count on crazy volume stats--chalk Brady up for 31 touchdowns and yet another AFC East crown.
Dak Prescott Passing Touchdowns: 24
Higher:
Dak threw for 23 touchdowns last year, a very respectable total for a rookie QB, especially one that resides in such a slow-paced offense. While Ezekiel Elliott totaled the most yards on the ground last year among all rushers (by quite a large difference), Dak was tasked with being a game-manager of sorts. He was called upon to make timely throws and limit mistakes--which he did by throwing just 4 interceptions all year. However, I think the Cowboys loosen the reigns on Dak this year as he showed them that he could be a star passer at times last year when they needed him. Elliott will get his for sure, but Dak may have to go to the air more especially if his star runner gets suspended for whatever length. Plus, the Cowboys play a significantly tougher schedule this year which may require Dak to be in more shootouts or have to come from behind a little more. Dak can reach the mid-to-high 20's in passing touchdowns (27) in 2017.
Drew Brees Passing Yards: 4,999
Lower:
Unfortunately, there will be a time where 5,000 yards are not a given for Brees every year like they have been in years past. And I believe that starts now. Don't get me wrong, Brees will undoubtedly fill the stat sheet like he does every season--but don't be surprised if his volume stats lower this season. Brees is getting up there in age at 38 years old and it looks as though the Saints are trying to lean more towards their ground game recently. Mark Ingram last season rushed for 1,000 yards, a mark Saints rushers have missed in each of the previous 10 seasons before Ingram bested it in 2016. And the Saints are looking to follow suit in 2017 as they brought in one of the sport's most dominant running backs in recent memory--Adrian Peterson. With those two in the backfield, Brees may hand the ball off more than he's used to. And don't forget people, 5,000 yards is very tough to do. I see Brees more in the 4,700-4,850 range.
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards: 4,650 Yards
Lower: People are starting to hop onto the Kirk Cousins bandwagon now after a surprising (yet phenomenal) season in which he fell just 83 yards shy of 5,000 passing yards. Well, I'm here to remind you that his previous career-high in yards was 4,166 the year before. While that is also a respectable mark in the NFL, I think people are being too awe-struck by the near-5,000 yard total he posted in 2016. Yes, he is a very capable QB but there's a reason the Redskins are cautious about paying him long-term and making him their franchise QB. Also, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson both left in free agency and while they got Terrelle Pryor from the Browns, he is still just in year 2 of being a wide receiver. Behind him there's Jamison Crowder--a possession-type receiver and the unknowns Josh Doctson. And while some will bring up Jordan Reed, I will cede that he does make Cousins better, but in how many games since Reed makes it a habit of missing four or five games every year. I think Cousins returns to the pack in 2017 throwing for around 4,500 yards as opposed to the 4,900 others are pegging him at.
Jameis Winston Interceptions: 15
Higher:
Some people just don't change. Such is the case for Jameis Winston, going into his third year as the QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Known around the league as trigger-happy, Winston is constantly throwing balls up into tight coverage hoping for his receivers to bail him out. Fortunately for him, he has Mike Evans, one of the premier 50/50 ball pass-catchers in the league. However, even Evans cannot save Winston every time as evidenced by Winston's 15 and 18 interception totals in the past two years, respectively. With the additions of DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard to the offense, Tampa Bay looks like they are going to pass a healthy amount this season which means more errant throws from the Florida State product. Winston may flirt with 30 touchdowns in 2017 but his interception total may hover around the 18-20 mark like last season.
Cam Newton Rushing Attempts: 96
Lower:
Cam has averaged a little under 115 rushing attempts since he stepped foot in the league. However, as injuries have inevitably mounted, the Panthers are intelligently trying to keep their star QB out of the trainer's room by limiting his rushes and therefore his big hits. While many see this as a waste of Cam's greatest strength--his legs--they seem to miss his potential as a thrower (35 passing touchdowns in '15). If Cam were given more attempts and time to develop as a passer, I think he is gifted enough to become a quality pocket quarterback. For those that disagree, please watch some of the throws Cam makes and witness the rocket that is attached to his arm...absolutely incredible. Cam would need to average 6 rushes per game in 2017 to reach 96 attempts and I don't see him or the Panthers wanting that to happen so I say he comes closer to the 72 attempts Russell Wilson attempted last season with 80-85.
Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards: 345
Higher:
Mariota was a high-profile dual-threat QB coming out of college and hasn't disappointed in his two injury-plagued seasons as a pro. He averaged 21 rushing yards his rookie year and over 23 yards on the ground last season. He actually finished 6th in rushing yards among signal-callers despite missing a game. If he had played in that last game, he would've finished third among QB's if you add his average of 23 yards he had up to that point. However, this was a tougher prediction since Mariota broke his leg, which is a pretty important part of the body for running. Nevertheless, I foresee a potent offense in Tennessee, spearheaded by Mariota and his skills through the air as well as on the ground. I can see Mariota approach 375 yards if he stays healthy.