Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football Rankings: TE Edition
The tight end position has always been somewhat of an undervalued commodity in both the NFL and fantasy. However, players like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have changed the way people view tight ends now, and have even ushered in a new class of tight ends like Travis Kelce and Jordan Reed. But for me, there's only two strategies for picking tight ends in fantasy drafts--pick one early or pick one late.
1) Rob Gronkowski
2016: 25 Receptions, 540 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving TDs = 72.00 FP (TE22) (8 Games Played) (NFL.com Standard Scoring)
Analysis: This is the easiest ranking in fantasy football as Gronk is the most dominant tight end in NFL history...and he's only 28 years old. He played in just half the games of a regular season last year and still managed to finish as the TE22, which is considered a TE2 in 12-team leagues and he missed as many games as he played in. If he continued on his pace last year and played in all 16 games, he would've been the best tight end by 6 points...and that would've been considered a down year for him because he's surpassed 144 fantasy points in 4 out of his previous 6 seasons. Look to grab him in the beginning of the third round to have a distinct advantage at the position.
2) Travis Kelce
2016: 85 Receptions, 1,125 Receiving Yards, 4 Receiving TDs = 138.00 FP (TE1) (16 GP)
Analysis: Kelce has been incredibly consistent over his first three years in the league, which is very impressive since tight ends usually have a few years of mediocrity before making an impact in the NFL. But for Kelce, he has gradually improved his numbers each year--culminating in the transformation into a legit star. His rookie year saw him put up a slash line of 67/862/5, then 72/875/5 in his sophomore campaign, and finally a number one finish amongst tight ends with an 85/1,125/4 line. Kelce is an incredibly safe option at the position as he has put up respectable numbers in all three of his pro seasons, has played in all 16 games in every season, and now is the unquestioned go-to receiver thanks to Jeremy Maclin's release.
3) Greg Olsen
2016: 80 Receptions, 1,073 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving TDs = 127.30 FP (TE2) (16 GP)
Analysis: Greg Olsen is the epitome of the consistent fantasy football player--16 games played in nine straight years, 69+ receptions in five straight years, and 1,000+ yards in three straight years. In fact, Olsen is just one of eight players that has recorded over 1,000 yards in each of the past three years. And he's the only tight end. The three touchdowns is disappointing but remember that Cam Newton hit a bit of a rough patch last year after an MVP season the season before. Look for Newton to bounce back which should catapult Olsen back to 5 or 6 touchdowns. We talk as if Olsen had a bad year, yet he finished as the second best TE in fantasy.
4) Jordan Reed
2016: 66 Receptions, 686 Receiving Yards, 6 Receiving TDs = 102.60 FP (TE9) (12 GP) Analysis: Reed is the player that always seems to be a good idea on draft day but then haunts you by the time playoffs come around. That being said, Reed is a legit football player who plays the position as good as anyone not named Rob Gronkowski. Many have him as the 2nd best TE option behind Gronk in many early rankings but I just cannot get behind that logic. Especially when Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce are playing at such a high level and have near perfect track records playing-wise. And for those that bring up the argument that Gronk is in the same situation, then you have to reevaluate yourself if your now comparing Gronk with Reed. Give me Olsen and Kelce with their 16 games. However, after these four, the TE position drops off significantly.
5) Jimmy Graham
2016: 65 Receptions, 923 Receiving Yards, 6 Receiving TDs = 124.30 FP (TE4) (16 GP)
Analysis : As I said, after Reed, there is a noticeable cliff. There are a number of tight ends that you can place at #5 depending on your preference and my preference (barely) is Jimmy Graham. Graham was a bust in his first year in Seattle but found his niche this past season. Even with Wilson injured and at his worst, Graham was still able to be a top flight TE option. He also was able to stay healthy for all 16 games which further helped with his ranking as the number 4 tight end in 2016. If Graham continues to stay healthy, he should be the fifth best option at the position thanks to an ever-growing connection with Russell Wilson and being the second option in a recently more pass-happy offense behind Doug Baldwin.
6) Kyle Rudolph
2016: 83 Receptions, 840 Receiving Yards, 7 Receiving TDs = 126.00 FP (TE3) (16 GP)
Analysis: It may be hard to believe but Kyle Rudolph was actually the third best TE in fantasy last year behind Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen. And while his upside may be somewhat capped due to his lack of explosiveness and being apart of the Minnesota Vikings' offense, he is actually a very safe play at TE (especially with Sam Bradford behind center). He led all tight ends in targets with 132 and accumulated at least 7 targets in 12 games. He may not have any games with two or three touchdowns like a Jordan Reed, or have six games of 100+ yards like a Travis Kelce, but Rudolph is pretty close to a sure thing when it comes to targets and opportunities.
7) Delanie Walker
2016: 65 Receptions, 800 Receiving Yards, 7 Receiving TDs = 123.10 FP (TE5) (15 GP)
Analysis: Walker is a very popular mid-round pick for many fantasy owners and deservedly so as Walker has been a model of consistency for owners over the past three years. He has recorded at least 63 catches, 102 targets, and 800 receiving yards in each of those three seasons, highlighted by a career year in 2015--94 receptions, 1,088 yards, and 6 TDs. Heading into 2017, the Titans have a revamped and potentially scary offense with weapons at every position. Although this might be beneficial for Walker in the form of more scoring opportunities, I am a bit skeptical of target share thanks to the additions of first rounder WR Corey Davis and red-zone monster Eric Decker. Walker will still get his but it might be hard for him to provide owners with the consistency that he has offered in years past.
8) Tyler Eifert
2016: 29 Receptions, 394 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs = 69.40 FP (TE24) (8 GP) Analysis: The ultimate wild card of the tight end position is definitely Tyler Eifert. When healthy, Eifert is a beast capable of posting the highest TD mark of anyone in the NFL while also gaining chunks of yards at a time with a career 12.1 yards per catch--greater than that of Greg Olsen (11.8), Jordan Reed (10.5), and Delanie Walker (11.9). However, Eifert's greatest downfall is his proneness to injuries which have only let him suit up for 22 of a possible 48 games over the last three years. Eifert has the potential to be a top-3 TE in fantasy, as he has shown before (18 TDs in his last 21 games), but also has the potential to leave your TE position on your team vacant. If he falls enough, he may be a huge bargain and could be a league-winning pick.
9) Hunter Henry
2016: 36 Receptions, 478 Receiving Yards, 8 Receiving TDs = 93.80 FP (TE11) (15 GP)
Analysis: The last two spots in the top ten for tight ends can be filled by a great number of TEs, but I believe Henry and Doyle make great cases to finishing in the top ten. First off with Henry, he came down with 8 TDs on just 36 receptions, which is simply incredible efficiency. Now we'd be foolish to think that he can sustain this outrageous pace but the interesting thing is that he actually doesn't have to continue this pace to be a top-ten TE. Although he played in 15 games last season, he averaged a measly 2.4 catches per game which is an area that will undoubtedly change in 2017 with another year under Henry's belt. Here's a stat that will blow you away: Henry led all tight ends with 8 TDs yet was 23rd in yards amongst TEs and 27th in receptions. Henry is obviously a gifted playmaker in a pass-happy offense with a quarterback who loves throwing to big tight ends. Henry missed out on the top ten last season by a single fantasy point...look for Henry to climb up the ranks this season.
10) Jack Doyle
2016: 59 Receptions, 584 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs = 86.40 FP (TE13) (16 GP)
Analysis: Doyle may not be a household name, or anything close to it for that matter, but he has me trusting him as my starting TE heading into the 2017 season. With Andrew Luck at quarterback, TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief at receiver, and the departure of TE Dwayne Allen to New England, Doyle has a great opportunity to shine. With limited action last year, he finished as the 13th best TE in fantasy and I think he can easily surpass his 584 yards and 5 TDs from a year ago. Let's do some simple addition to figure out what Doyle's touchdown range can be this year: Luck is going to throw for 30+ touchdown if healthy (so let's say around 33 TDs based on his 2.09 TDs per game over the past two seasons)-- so if Hilton hits his career-high of 7 touchdowns, Moncrief goes for around 8 touchdowns (1 more than career-high), the RB core scoops up 4 touchdowns through the air in total (Gore had 4 last season which is sure to fall), leaving back-up TE Eric Swoopes (1 TD in '16), Phillip Dorsett (2 TDs in '16), Chester Rogers (0 TDs in '16), and newcomer Kamar Aiken (1 TD in '16) who will accumulate around 4-6 touchdowns total amongst the four of them. This leaves 10 touchdowns left of Luck's hypothetical 33 for Doyle.